Scientists Warn of Strong El Niño Impacts on India

Scientists Warn of Strong El Niño Impacts on India

Why in News?

• Scientists have warned that the 2026 El Niño could become a strong or “super” event and significantly affect India’s weather and ecosystems. Forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions could continue into early 2027. 
• The warning is important because El Niño generally weakens the southwest monsoon and can increase heat and drought risks in India. 

What is El Niño?

• El Niño is the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. 
• It develops when normal Pacific trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to move eastward. 
• This changes rainfall and wind patterns across different parts of the world. 
• A very strong El Niño is often called a “Super El Niño” when Pacific sea-surface temperatures rise well above normal. 

Possible Impact on India

• Weak Monsoon: Reduced monsoon rainfall can increase drought risk and affect rain-dependent farming. 
• Extreme Heat: Less rainfall and higher temperatures can intensify heatwaves. 
• Agriculture: Lower water availability can reduce crop yields and increase pressure on food prices and rural incomes. 
• Water Resources: Poor rainfall can reduce reservoir levels and groundwater recharge. 
• Forests: Prolonged heat and drought can increase forest-fire risks and stress large trees. 
• Marine Ecosystems: Warmer oceans can cause coral bleaching and affect fisheries. 
• Livelihoods: Farmers, fishers and pastoral communities are particularly vulnerable to prolonged heat and water shortages. 

Global Effects

• El Niño can produce drought in some regions and excessive rainfall in others. 
• It can increase the risk of heatwaves, wildfires, floods and changes in storm patterns. 
• Marine ecosystems can also be affected because warmer ocean waters disturb fish populations and coral reefs. 

Way Forward

• Strengthen early-warning systems and climate monitoring. 
• Promote drought-resistant crops and efficient irrigation. 
• Improve water conservation, groundwater recharge and reservoir management. 
• Document ecological changes to develop better climate-resilience strategies. 

Practice Question

Q. With reference to El Niño and its possible impact on India, consider the following statements:

• El Niño involves abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. 
• Weakening of Pacific trade winds allows warm water to move eastward, altering global rainfall and wind patterns.
• El Niño invariably causes drought across all parts of India because it weakens the southwest monsoon. 
• Its impacts can extend beyond agriculture to water resources, forests, marine ecosystems and livelihoods. 

Which of the statements given above are correct?

A. 1, 2 and 4 only
 B. 1 and 3 only
 C. 2, 3 and 4 only
 D. 1, 2, 3 and 4

Answer: A

Explanation:

• Statements 1, 2 and 4 are correct. 
• Statement 3 is incorrect because El Niño generally weakens the Indian monsoon and increases drought risk, but its effects vary regionally and it does not invariably cause drought everywhere in India.