17 Catastrophic Threats to Global Health by 2100: Lancet Commission

Lancet Commission Identifies 17 Catastrophic Threats to Global Health

Why in the News?

• The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health has identified 17 interconnected threats that could cause major losses of healthy life by 2100.
• The Commission was launched at the World Health Summit in Berlin and studied risks across 204 countries and territories.
• It argues that these threats should not be addressed separately because many of them reinforce one another.

17 Major Threats

• The Commission identifies:
  • Obesity
  • Antimicrobial resistance (AMR)
  • Poor mental health
  • High blood pressure
  • Childhood malnutrition
  • Smoking
  • Unhealthy ageing
  • Income inequality
  • Low educational attainment
  • Climate change
  • Air pollution
  • Naturally occurring pandemics
  • Conventional conflict
  • Nuclear conflict
  • Malicious use of AI
  • Declining development assistance for health
  • High alcohol use

Key Findings

• A threat was considered catastrophic if it could cause at least 1 billion Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to be lost by 2100 and could be influenced through policy action.
• Obesity represents the largest projected health burden, with effective action potentially preventing 23.1 billion DALYs.
• Improving educational attainment could potentially prevent around 16.1 billion DALYs.
• Income inequality could result in about 13.8 billion DALYs, equivalent to roughly 25 COVID-19 pandemics in terms of health burden.
• Limiting global warming to around 1.8°C instead of 4.4°C could prevent an estimated 1.89 billion DALYs from heat and air-pollution-related causes.
• Nuclear conflict and malicious AI are considered relatively less likely but could have extremely severe consequences, including potentially existential risks.

Why It Matters for India

• India needs greater long-term planning and preparedness for pandemics, AMR, climate-related health risks, malnutrition, obesity and mental health.
• The Commission recommends stronger health systems, investment in vaccines, antibiotics and climate technologies, and regular assessment of emerging threats.
• India can also play a greater role in international discussions on pandemic preparedness, AI safety and global health governance.
• The central message is that health threats are interconnected; therefore, integrated and preventive policies are more effective than dealing with each threat separately.

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) 

• AMR, often called the “Silent Pandemic,” occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites become resistant to medicines used against them.
• This can produce “superbugs”, causing infections that are harder to treat, last longer and spread more easily.
• Resistance develops naturally through evolution but is accelerated by human activities.
• Major mechanisms include:
  • Reduced drug uptake by changing the cell structure.
  • Target modification, preventing medicines from acting on their targets.
  • Efflux pumps, which remove drugs from cells.
  • Drug inactivation through enzymes such as beta-lactamases.
• Major causes include overuse or misuse of antimicrobials, unnecessary antibiotics for viral infections, widespread OTC access, excessive use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, pharmaceutical waste, antibiotic use in livestock and poor sanitation.

World Health Summit (WHS) 

• World Health Summit (WHS) is an international, multi-stakeholder forum focused on global health issues.
• It is held annually in Berlin, Germany.
• It is organised by WHS Foundation GmbH, a wholly owned subsidiary of Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin.
• Established in 2009, it brings together governments, scientists, health professionals, international organisations, civil society and other stakeholders.
• Its objective is to promote cooperation and innovative solutions to major global health challenges.
• Key areas include:
  • Pandemic preparedness
  • Digital health
  • Climate change and health
  • Healthcare equity
  • Health-system resilience
• Besides the main Berlin summit, it also conducts regional meetings and activities throughout the year.
• WHS is different from the World Health Assembly (WHA), which is the decision-making body of the WHO.

WHS 2026

• Theme: “From Crisis to Resilience: Innovating for Health”
• More than 4,000 participants attended in person from 130 countries and territories.
• The summit featured 400+ speakers, including around 20 ministers and state secretaries.
• It included 76 sessions and received more than 50,000 livestream views.
• The summit focused on using innovation and partnerships to build more equitable, resilient and future-ready health systems.

Practice Question

Q. Consider the following statements regarding the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health:

1. A threat was classified as catastrophic if it could potentially cause at least one billion DALYs by 2100 and its impact could be altered through policy intervention. 
2. The Commission considers antimicrobial resistance to be solely a biological phenomenon, as human activities have little role in accelerating the development of resistance.  
3. The World Health Summit is the decision-making body of the World Health Organization and is therefore distinct from the World Health Assembly only in terms of its location. 
4. The Commission emphasises that threats such as climate change, pandemics and antimicrobial resistance should be addressed through an integrated approach because they can reinforce one another.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

(a) 1 and 4 only
(b) 1, 2 and 4 only
(c) 2 and 3 only
(d) 1, 3 and 4 only

Answer: (a) 1 and 4 only

Explanation:

• Statement 1 is correct. A threat was classified as catastrophic if it could cause at least 1 billion DALYs by 2100 and there was scope for reducing its impact through policy action.
• Statement 2 is incorrect. AMR is a natural evolutionary process, but human activities such as overuse and misuse of antimicrobials, inappropriate antibiotic use, pharmaceutical waste and poor sanitation accelerate resistance.
• Statement 3 is incorrect. The World Health Summit (WHS) is an international forum for discussion and cooperation on global health. The World Health Assembly (WHA) is the decision-making body of the WHO. Hence, WHS is not a WHO decision-making body.
• Statement 4 is correct. The Commission stresses that the identified threats are interconnected. For example, climate change can worsen malnutrition, air pollution, AMR and mental health problems. Therefore, an integrated approach is required.
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